Sunday, August 06, 2006

Iraq: Is it time for us to go?

General John Abizaid, in testimony before Congress admitted the possibility that Iraq could slip into civil war:


"I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I've seen it, in Baghdad in particular, and that if not stopped it is possible that Iraq could move toward civil war," Gen. John Abizaid testified at a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee.


Fueling this possibility, he said, was the combination of "sectarian violence, al Qaeda terrorists, insurgents and Shia militants."


"Failure to apply coordinated regional and international pressure ... will further extremism" and could lead to a widening and more perilous conflict, he said.


But that isn't what the troops are saying:


While American politicians and generals in Washington debate the possibility of civil war in Iraq, many U.S. officers and enlisted men who patrol Baghdad say it has already begun.


Army troops in and around the capital interviewed in the last week cite a long list of evidence that the center of the nation is coming undone: Villages have been abandoned by Sunni and Shiite Muslims; Sunni insurgents have killed thousands of Shiites in car bombings and assassinations; Shiite militia death squads have tortured and killed hundreds, if not thousands, of Sunnis; and when night falls, neighborhoods become open battlegrounds.


So, if Iraq has descended into civil war, should we have troops there?


I know that many want to stay the course and win, but how do we win a civil war, when it's not our war anymore? Will our soldiers become pawns in a violent Sunni/Shi'a contest if we stay? Will Shi'a anger over Israel's attack on the Hizbullah make them targets in Iraq?


If we leave, will Iran move in and set up a friendly Iraqi regime? Will the Kurds break off from Iraq? Will Turkey stand for that, or invade northern Iraq to subdue the Kurds? Will Saudi mujahideen returning from Iraq destabilize their homeland? Will we have to go back with a much bigger force to secure the oil in ten years time?


Have we reached the point where we are in a lose/lose situation?


One definition of quagmire is a difficult, precarious, or entrapping position.

Are we there now?


If there's more, it's here.